Clearly everyone thinks Manchester City are going to win this game including myself but the odds dictate a value bet on Aston Villa.
Villa have already beaten City once this season and won away at Arsenal whilst forcing a draw at Chelsea so their record against top four teams is not at all bad.
The odds for Villa are so long because all of the money has gone on City to win but at 18/1 betting on Villa to take the points represents true value.
The problem is that as a Reds fan betting on the away team to win is going to hit you with a double whammy if they lose or draw – you lose your money for the stake and you also lose whatever hope you had left of Liverpool winning an unlikely 25th title.
So in this instance I am going to pass the bet but if you are a neutral betting on Villa is the way to go. Strange things happen in football and teams can be 3-0 up and chasing down a goal difference with just ten minutes to go in a game only to end up drawing 3-3 and wondering what on earth happened.
And that was another winning bet!
Also the regular readers will remember our FA Cup win when we backed Wigan to beat Manchester City at odds of 8/1.
The question to ask yourself is this one:
“If Villa played at the Etihad 18 times in a row how many times would you expect them to win?”
If the answer is one or more then this represents a value bet because you will always end up with at least your stake back.