You can tell that time passes too quickly when you are a sports fan because you can time the year by the events that are coming up to bet on.
Six Nations Rugby, then we will soon be into the boat race and Grand National territory and before you know it Wimbledon is upon us and the FA Cup final.
Time seems to pass so slowly when you are watching the clock for your next coffee break or it’s time to down tools but when it comes to sports betting time really does fly!
This weekend I’ve got a nice accumulator double for you with some applied reasoning for why it’s only a double and the argument why we haven’t added in the third game to try and make a greater profit from the bet.
Incidentally I have a fab new article coming up shortly which is going to look at accumulator bets in general and explain why we do what we do so either sign up for the mailing list and get notified of when it arrives or come back on Monday or Tuesday when it should be posted up.
So with the preliminary small talk dispensed with let’s get down to business.
This weekend the three Six Nations games are:
Scotland v Italy.
France v Wales.
Ireland v England.
The surprise for most people last weekend was that Italy have improved so much recently, but it was on the cards when you look at their autumn international results and the odds said that they should be backed so last week was a no brainer.
This week more money has gone on the Italians and the odds have shortened – if you want to make more money from accumulators then do your research and plan ahead early. The early bird gets the worm and the fat pile of money.
Betting early before anyone has a guide from early form can really boost your profits if you are prepared to go with your prepared reasoning before the bookies have a chance to alter their line.
So this week I’m sticking with Italy to pull another win out of the bag and I think they will beat Scotland. Last year they did exactly that albeit in their own back yard but they have improved enough to make a win here feasible.
Wales are struggling to find any form and away from home they are going to struggle again against the French who will ring the changes and will not be allowed by the home crowd to settle for average possession football.
And finally Ireland and England are pretty evenly matched so you take your pick and toss a coin. I’m picking England based on their Autumn performances and the fact they have several key players returning this weekend. In Particular Tuilagi though he may not make it back into the starting line up based on the excellent performance from Billy Twelvetrees in the game against Scotland.
So with the picks out of the way let’s look at the odds:
Here’s a quick glance at oddschecker to save you the bother.
The best odds here for an Italy win are at Bet365.
If you are going to consistently place your accumulator bets at your favourite bookie then you are really missing a trick and this is why:
My favourite bookie to place accumulators is Skybet because it is quick and easy but when I loaded up this bet this is what greeted me:
The treble for the three games gives you overall odds of 4.67/1 but with France V Italy included this really does not represent value. At odds of 1/4 if we really think that France are going to be caning Wales then we should be getting on a single bet. These odds have no place in our accumulator because it is not contributing enough value.
Often it's not the case that you need to add more bets to your accumulator to make more money. In any case those extra fixtures that you do add are often the ones that come back to bite you in the ass.
If we load up the same bet at Bet365 we get better odds and we can lose the France v Wales game to make a similar return.
My favourite bookie for placing accumulators is Skybet because they are quick and easy to do however religiously sticking with the same bookmaker is a recipe for drinking cheap cider from the bottle in the gutter. Maybe you won't end up begging for your next bet but it does make a big difference to your bottom line and if you are an average sports punter who breaks even winning 50% of your bets then it IS a big deal.
Now for those of you wondering what all the fuss is about - the double is the building block of your accumulator. Master building a double and you will stand a good chance of winning your fair share of accumulators. Not only that but you are building in multiplier value for your next bet.
For example look at last weeks FA Cup fourfold for a way of building multiplier value through low risk betting and then adding a payoff bet at the end.
In the above example if were to make this bet into a treble then we would want to extract real value for our bet. It's not just a case of adding on another bet for the fun of it. You have leveraged the bookmakers money to obtain funds for a bet that you wouldn't normally be able to afford or justify so what's the point in just adding on more bets in a random way?
To convert this double into a treble we would need a payoff bet to bring home the bacon and here it is:
QPR have spent a lot of money on players in the transfer window and with Harry at the helm it is not going to be long before they start on the winning trail. At 15/4 this is an example of the payoff bet - our original £10 stake will return £243.33 if all matches go our way.
This is why you can laugh at your mates who go to ridiculous lengths to add more and more bets to their accumulator. That's not how it is done. Reasoning and odds are the building blocks of accumulators and of course you need some magic fairy dust sprinkled your way occasionally so that your mopes actually win.
After the good run I have had recently I'm not going to be greedy and I'm settling for the double. How about you? BTW if you are a fan of American football my betting friend from Canada has some amazing NHL Betting Tips - you might like to check them out.