In the First Test betting we picked England to win and just about scraped home with Australia fighting all the way to the end with dogged determination.
At that point it was quite conceivable that Australia could have won the first test but the third day morning collapse losing a quick five wickets was what ultimately led to their demise. each run took the Aussies closer to their total and on the final day it looked more and more like an unlikely Australia victory.
In the second test we picked Australia simply because the odds were too great to be ignored and at 16 to 5, I considered this to be good value. However the visitors were comprehensively outplayed and every decsion that the England selectors make lately seems to turn to gold.
Picking Joe Root to open in place of Nick Compton was a questionable call and Compton can genuinely feel that he hasn't really been given a fair crack of the whip. In the past it was this type of decision that would make the England selectors look foolish but this time they have been vindicated and Joe Root's magnificent 180 was a glorious innings full of fantastic strokeplay.
As the odds have widened so our opportunities for value betting have decreased and after such a thrashing the 5 to 1 on offer at Paddy Power for an Australian victory in this game no longer looks appealing.
England are now 8 to 11 at most bookies which is still a decent punt and I'm surprised that the odds are not a lot shorter for the home team.
Where there is a glimmer of light though is in the 5 to 2 on offer from most bookmakers that the third test ends in a draw.
With the storm clouds returning it just wouldn't be cricket as we know it if the rain did not interrupt play!
If the Aussies play as badly as they did in the second test then they are going to be in for another thrashing and only the rain will save them. Particularly now that their main strike bowler Pattinson is going to miss the rest of the series with a back injury.
For that reason I can see absolutely no point in backing Australia even though the odds get tastier with every game and your money should go on the England win or the draw depending on the weather forecast.