England start as massive favourites but how can you ignore odds of 16/5 at Boylesports that Australia will win this game?
They won't make so many DRS mistakes this time around and those odds are too good to miss. On top of that the Aussies have lost just one test at Lords since 1938 - There's value there.
As always when it comes to making the line, bookmakers will always hold the advantage over the betting crowd because it is up to the punter to do their research and prove that the bookmaker has got their sums wrong.
In the case of this Ashes series it is quite clear that this will be no five nil whitewash and the Aussies will certainly win at least one test match in the series.
The difference between the two sides in the first test was not so much a question of ability but the judicious use of the DRS system.
England made 8/9 correct calls whereas the Aussies only managed to make three correct calls and essentially that was the difference between the two sides.
Unless Australia can rectify that deficient decision-making where DRS is concerned then they will always be handicapped for the rest of the games in this series.
However I am sure that the coaching and backroom staff will be looking at this process very closely and will be trying to make dramatic improvement. Australia won't make so many rash calls in the future games.
Additionally Australia will be improved by moving Agar up the order to number seven or eight batsman and strengthening their batting order. It was clear when this guy came in to bat that he was no rabbit in the headlights number 11 and England lost the plot for several hours until they figured out that this guy could play a bit.
There is a resilience to the Australian batting line-up that equals out any deficiency that they have in talent and this test series is going to be a lot closer than the five nil whitewash that sky bet was suggesting before the series started.
For the second test England are almost certainly going to recall Bresnan in place of the hapless Finn who bowled too short and wide and was flayed by Haddin just when England were looking to tighten the game.
Bresnan may not be as quick as Finn but he is a better batsmen and his line is better when the pressure is on.
As the run chase came down to the wire in the first test the England bowling deficiency was glaringly exposed-not having a seamer who could control line and length and bowl to a set field to try and increase the pressure was a major malfunction.
I would say that at this point England are slightly the better team with Anderson and Broad in attack and Swann and Bresnan bringing a good second line. However who wins the second test is going to be all about who can use the DRS system to the best advantage.
At the moment that team is England but make no mistake Australia will learn fast and catch up quickly.
Normally I would be backing an England win here but the odds of 16/5 on Australia are simply too good to miss.