Can Gilbert win on his home soil?
Ans, Belgium, is the finish line of the Liège-Bastogne-Liège classic and it is going to prove to be a hill to far for many of the starters in one of the worlds most famous cycling races.
The other two Ardennes classics (Amstel Classic and Fleche Wallone) do not finish with such a difficult flourish and it is going to be a strong climber who wins here.
Defending champ, Philippe Gilbert is the clear favourite for this race although I'm still going to put my money on Nibali as he simply has to get a win under his belt and is clearly good enough.
Phillipe Gilbert grew up near the Côte de la Redoute climb, where he would have dreamt about emulating Moreno Argentin and Sean Kelly. Last year, he finally won Liège and became only the second rider to capture the Ardennes Triple Crown.
His form has not been the best this year but he has been riding better and better and maybe he is riding into form for this race.
On Wednesday in Fleche Wallone, he placed third behind Joaquin Rodriguez (Katusha) and Michael Albasini (GreenEdge). He placed 12th last Sunday in a fantastic finish in the Amstel Gold.
I still think Nibali has a big win in him this season and he will be up with the main contenders on the final climb along with the Schleck brothers.
The winner will have to conquer 11 climbs in 257.5 kilometres. The race travels from Liège's Saint-Lambert square, south to Bastogne, north by Gilbert's home and on to Ans. The climbs are steep and frequent in the final, northern leg. The most famous climb is La Redoute, but La Roche aux Faucons climb may be the most important since its inclusion as the penultimate climb in 2008.
Liege-Bastogne-Liege 2012: Climbs
Start: 0km - Liege
70.0km - Côte de La Roche-en-Ardennes (2.8km long, 6.2%)
116.5km - Côte de Saint-Roch (1.0km long, 11%)
160.0km - Côte de Wanne (2.7km long, 7.3%)
166.5km - Côte de Stockeu (1.0km long, 12.2%)
172.0km - Côte de la Haute-Levée (3.6km long, 5.7%)
185.0km - Col du Rosier (4.4km long, 5.9%)
198.0km - Côte du Maquisard (2.5km long, 5%)
208.0km - Mont-Theux (2.7km long, 5.9%)
223.0km - Côte de La Redoute (2.0km long, 8.8%)
238.0km - Côte de La Roche aux Faucons (1.5km long, 9.3%)
252.0km - Côte de Saint-Nicolas (1.2km long, 8.6%)
Finish: 257.5km - Ans
Liege-Bastogne-Liege: Recent winners
2011 Philippe Gilbert (Bel)
2010 Alexandre Vinokourov (Kaz)
2009 Andy Schleck (Lux)
2008 Alejandro Valverde (Spa)
2007 Danilo Di Luca (Ita)
2006 Alejandro Valverde (Spa)
2005 Alexandre Vinokourov (Kaz)
2004 Davide Rebellin (Ita)
2003 Tyler Hamilton (USA)
2002 Paolo Bettini (Ita)
Liege-Bastogne-Liege: Last year's top ten (2011)
1. Philippe Gilbert (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto 255km in 6-13-18
2. Frank Schleck (Lux) Leopard-Trek
3. Andy Schleck (Lux) Leopard-Trek at same time
4. Roman Kreuziger (Cze) Astana at 24secs
5. Rigoberto Uran (Col) Team Sky
6. Chris Sorensen (Den) Saxo Bank-Sungard
7. Greg Van Avermaet (Bel) BMC Racing Team at 27secs
8. Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Liquigas at 29secs
9. Bjorn Leukemans (Bel) Vacansoleil-DCM at 39secs
10. Samuel Sanchez (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi at same time